stormTRacker Podcast
...stormTRacker is your home for in-depth analysis of the Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Wolves & Hurricanes' prospects around the globe. Host, Tom Ray, gives his insightful perspective & is joined by Hurricanes' "Insiders" Nick Bass, Erin Manning, Katie Bartlett & others to cover all the top stories for your Carolina Hurricanes. Tom is also active on "X" connecting with Hurricanes' fans on a regular basis. (@stormTRacker24)
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stormTRacker Podcast
Hurricanes Unleashed: Rantanen's Transition, Power Play Transformation, and Tactical Trades in Focus!
This episode explores the recent trade between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Colorado Avalanche, focusing on the performances of Mikko Rantanen and Marty Necas post-trade. We also analyze the Canes’ power play struggles, examine the team's PDO, and assess the importance of offensive contributions from the defensive core as they prepare for the upcoming trade deadline. We finish up with our thoughts on the Four Nations Face-off & what we might expect from Team Finland, in particular.
• Focus on Rantanen and Necas trade performance
• Deep dive into Hurricanes’ power play difficulties
• Analysis of PDO and its impact on team performance
• Evaluation of the Canes’ defensive scoring woes
• Predictions and strategies for the upcoming trade deadline
Well, the Carolina Hurricanes are in great shape as we break for the Four Nations faceoff. They're sitting in third place currently, just one point behind the Florida Panthers, with the game in hand. Now the Canes return to action on February 22nd and you can expect things are going to heat up in a hurry. We've got the trade deadline very close to that, of course, and there are teams that will be battling hard for playoff spots, so lots to consider for the Canes. I want to focus on a number of items for today's episode as the Canes prepare for what lies ahead. So we're going to talk about a view of the Rantanen-Natchez trade so far, what the top line should look like and our expectations, ongoing power play woes and the lack of scoring from the defensive core. And, finally, we're going to take a look at PDO, or puck luck as they call it in the analytics world. And, of course, joining me today, stormtracker Insiders Erin Manning and Katie Barba. Ladies welcome.
Speaker 2:Hi Tom Hello.
Speaker 1:Okay, so I thought we'd kick it off with the Rantan and Natchez trade discussion. Of course, it's all over X these days. The stats so far are interesting. I thought we'd take a look at them. So far for Mikko Rantanen, since he joined the Canes, he had 1.31 points per game. Prior to the trade. He's at 0.33 right now. That's not a great situation. And then on the other side, marty Natchez he was 1.12 with the Canes. He's 1.14 with the Colorado Avalanche. So what are we thinking about?
Speaker 3:this. Let's kick it off, katie. Well, it's definitely been fun watching these two guys play, since I follow both teams. Natchez has definitely just slid right in with Colorado's system. He is doing great. He is loving life on Nathan McKinnon's wing. Their speed really complements each other and you can tell that it's confusing defenses. When they're getting their zone entries, who do I cover, who do I watch for? And when they commit to one, it leaves the other one wide open with plenty of ice to operate in. So on the Colorado Avalanche side, they have welcomed Natchez. He has been a great addition, but even with the stats being what they are, he still did also get off to a slow start. He has played eight games for the Avs, whereas Rantanen has played six, because he missed that last one with the bruised knee from taking that shot.
Speaker 3:And it really was only in those last two games, in that seventh and eighth game, that Nate just really began to show up more on the score sheet and not just in creating chances. And Rantanen is right up there with the chances that he's created to. His shooting percentage just needs to needs to match and that's just going to take time with adapting to a new system and new teammates and that sort of thing. Um, he leads since he joined the hurricanes. He leads the team in shot attempts and shots on goal and he's right up there in a whole bunch of other metrics other than points. So I fully expect that, just as as natchez really found his footing in those last couple of games with the abs, that ranton is going to start finding his footing with the canes because he is too good of a score, too good of a shooter, too good of a passer to be having such low numbers as far as shooting percentage and points. Those are going to start coming because he's generating in all of the other areas.
Speaker 3:So all of those people who are out there talking about did we lose the trade? What's going to happen? Are the canes going to try and flip Nico Rantanen to another team. It's okay. It's going to be okay. Rantanen is going to be fine. He's going to stay on the canes. You don't have to worry about losing him for a third-round draft pick. It's fine. It's fine. He is going to find his space on the Canes and he is going to start scoring, and it is going to be beautiful when he does.
Speaker 1:Well, you know it's interesting. Eric Tolsky, on a recent episode of the Storm Report, said this about Mikko. He said he's created chance after chance and not all of them have gone in yet. You know it's something that happens in hockey and it's frustrating, but he could easily have had 12 or 15 points by now. I can put together a five-minute video highlight reel of just chance after chance that he created and you watch him and say, hey man, I can't believe he doesn't have more points by now. So clearly Eric is more than pleased with the efforts of Mikko and is certainly I don't think at this stage considering any possible move for Mr Rantanen.
Speaker 1:Now, interesting, when you look at what's happened with Mikko, there have been some other things surrounding it too, and I thought we'd touch on those a little bit. You know we had the flu going on, right. So you know a lot of the Canes weren't feeling well. Gee, sebastian Ajo was struggling with it. He sat out. You know that wasn't the best situation for Mikko to come into. And then the other thing you had was, you know, you kind of take a look at, you know, the situation that Mikko was in versus, maybe, marty Natchez, right? So Natchez joins a couple of incredible players in Nathan McKinnon and, of course, kale McCarr and, of course, miko, comes to a different system with different types of players. What are, what are your thoughts about those?
Speaker 2:Well, you know, just I think that there's a lot there that you, like you said, and then to just you know, the shock of a trade when you're not expecting it, versus I mean, we know Natchez and Drury were not expecting to be traded but, neither one of them was in a situation where they could be totally surprised.
Speaker 2:They weren't signed for long-term deals. They both had negotiated, you know they were. They had both filed for arbitration, even though they never got there, and they each had at least once requested a trade. So Rantanen was not expected to be traded. So, on top of all the things you mentioned, the flu and which is, I mean, that's just so unfortunate, the timing of that, right when he got there, you know. But on top of that, on top of the system differences, and coming in and being the superstar on the line instead of playing with the superstars on the line, you know, and being the superstar on the line instead of playing with the superstars on the line, all of that I think it just screams be patient. We shouldn't be jumping to conclusions right now. It's too small of a sample size under too strange of circumstances, would you agree, katie?
Speaker 3:I would definitely agree. And the flu, along with everything else he hasn't had consistent line mates. Along with everything else he hasn't had consistent line mates.
Speaker 3:Um, the, the abs, actually when, when, natchez was starting to get, you know, creating a lot but not getting a lot of results. They switched one winger off of that line because it was just too much of a pass happy line here you take the buck, here you take the buck. Nobody, nobody was shooting um, and then they put somebody in, weckinen, who was a finisher on that line, and you see some of the the points that natchez and mckinnon have created. They've created it because leckanen has been there to shoot the puck and actually finish the play, and I think that's a lot of what we're going to see, um with jarvis once he's on that, uh, top line, because they've only played one game together as a trio, again because of the flu and the other circumstances, and I think that as much hard work that blake put in and blake has been phenomenal in the time- that he has logged up in in the top six.
Speaker 3:He just does not have that same finishing talent that jarvis does, and so it's it's going to come along once you get that consistency with with ranting, and it's really going to come along. And, um, you get that consistency with Rantanen, it's really going to come along. And once he learns Ajo, once he learns Jarvis, he'll start finding them and they'll start finding him. And as long as there's a commitment to shoot the puck and not just play hot potato with it, yeah, I'm really looking forward to seeing what those guys are able to create what those guys are able to create.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and you're onto, I think, a good topic as well that I wanted to touch on in this whole situation. Katie is that first line. Again. He started with Ajo and Jackson Blake, and rightfully so, I mean Blake has again. Eric Telsky in that same episode of Storm Report was talking about Jackson Blake and he was very complimentary to Blake, said he's really impressed with what he's done. But I think putting Jarvis up there of course changes all the rules. Seth, interestingly enough, in his last 15 games has 11 goals and for that same period he's tied for the best in the league with three other players. So he's definitely getting it done and putting him up on that line, where you've got, you know, the capabilities added now of Amiko Rantan and all the good things he can do, I think you're starting to see the potential of what could be a dominating line for the Canes and this is what I think they should be trying to do. What do we think about this?
Speaker 2:I agree with you and I think that we're going to see a lot of that kind of thinking after this Four Nations break is over.
Speaker 2:You know, I think that all the other circumstances him coming in quickly, the flu and everything else, like Katie said, that impacted what they could or couldn't do with the Lions. And you know Blake was playing so well. I think he deserved some of that opportunity. Just to get that chance to be up there and get to play with, you know, a superstar player. That means a lot for a young player coming into the league, and so I'm sure that he took all the good lessons from that and he'll be really motivated to keep, you know, working on all the things they want him to work on.
Speaker 2:So, but yeah, you can't compare where Seth Jarvis is right now to where Jackson Blake is right now. So I do think that, ultimately, as they start to form lines because from the break on to the rest of the season we're talking about forming lines for the playoffs that's going to be the decision-making behind who's playing on the top line with Mikko Rantanen. It's going to be the decision-making through all four lines and it's also going to be a factor that influences the decisions that they make for the trade deadline, which is something I know, you know, in the future we're going to talk about. So if they're going to play Jarvis Ajo and Rantanen in the playoffs as a line and I see no reason why they shouldn't then they need to start having them play together as soon as possible, and I think that will probably happen starting after the break. I would be very surprised if it didn't.
Speaker 3:Another thing that's interesting is they started playing Rantanen on left wing, which is typical for most left-handed shots. But Rantanen is actually one of those forwards that prefers to play on his offside and prefers to play right wing. And I wouldn't be surprised because they wanted to leave Blake up there and give him that opportunity that they put Rantanen over on the left wing, because asking a rookie to play his offside would perhaps be a little too too much of a challenge for what they wanted to give him. But you put Jarvis there. Jarvis can play his off wing.
Speaker 3:Jarvis is very flexible in the way that he plays and so I can see them doing creating a whole lot more opportunities together, because you could enter the zone with Ranton and left wing, jarvis right wing, because of the way their shots would be on the rush. But then, once the zone, with Rantanen left wing, jarvis right wing, because of the way their shots would be on the rush. But then, once the zone has been established, switching sides, creating that movement opening Rantanen up for a shot, opening up Jarvis for a shot, or either of them switching around on the cycle. Rantanen has no problem playing in front of the net and creating tips and deflections and screens, and we definitely know that that's a strength of Jarvis as well. So their ability to complement each other in that way is really going to create a lot of opportunities on that top line to confuse defenses and really get those scoring chances and hopefully eventually lots of goals as a result.
Speaker 1:Agreed, yeah, and, and you know that the last game against Utah, you know Jarvis and Ajo were magic together and Ajo played one of his best games, I think, in a while. And you know, you just saw the magic that they could get going. And and I think if you look at adding you know, miko Rantanen to that mix, it starts to get pretty exciting. I mean, they could be a dominating line for sure. And one of the areas that they're going to have to help in for sure is an area we've talked an awful lot about and that's the power play.
Speaker 1:You know the Canes did score and that's great news, but their power play has been just woeful. If you look at the numbers over the last several months and I've got the latest numbers of this in October they were 29%, In November they were 25%, in December 23.7% and in January 5.1%, and we know that it just cratered in January. And where they sit right now is they sit 21st in the league at 20%. So they have gone, they've just fallen exponentially. And just to put that in perspective, the teams that they're going to be, you know, interested in, I think, in terms of playoff situation, you've got the Jets. The Winnipeg Jets are sitting at 33.3 percent on the power play.
Speaker 1:This is, this is devastating the devils, even the devils, if they play the devils in the first round. The devils are 27.5, uh, the panthers 24.4, the caps 23.2. Um, and we know how important special teams are come playoff time. You know Rod Grindemore talks about this all the time. So they've got to do something with that power play. And, katie, what do you think? What's your thinking when you look at this power play and trying to bootstrap it and get it back on track?
Speaker 3:Well, the first thing that I think is that in the past little while it's just seemed too static and too set on the perimeter.
Speaker 3:There's just lots of safe passes that aren't being contested by the defense, because any good penalty kill is more than happy to let the power play work on the perimeter and not give anything dangerous down in the heart of the ice. That's definitely something they need to change up. What's interesting and of course there's all these parallels, so I come back to it a lot is that Colorado's power play has been in much the same situation before the trade and a lot of the broadcasters were talking about well, what's Colorado going to do with their power play? Because now you have Natchez, who's a right-handed shot, and McKinnon, who's a right-handed shot, who both like to play the same part of the ice as each other.
Speaker 3:What are they going to be? Are they just going to be bumping into each other all of the time, trying to occupy that particular space around the left faceoff dot for the one-timers they like to take? Well, what they've ended up doing, since they both like to play there, is they have started moving around a lot to where they one will take up residence there while the other one moves, and then they'll swap and they'll just keep changing back and forth. And it's forcing the penalty kill defenses to move their feet and turn their skates in such a way that it creates other shooting lanes, passing lanes and opportunities. And so the Avs power play has started to heat up. As a result, they have been getting more power play goals since Natchez has joined the power play unit. I wouldn't be surprised if a similar attack would be useful on the Canes power play Right, because Rantanen is a left-handed shot, aho is a left-handed shot and Svetch also likes to play in those areas.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 3:And so if they can create some movement, where they're constantly moving and replacing each other in those spots in the ice, and create a similar type of commitment to the D to have to turn and commit to one player or the other, then they will be able to see similar results and create those lanes and those scoring opportunities and bigger areas of the net to shoot at when they do have an opportunity to take their shot have an opportunity to take their shot.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I think the other part of this is this whole question of who should be actually kind of driving the power play. I mean, obviously, at the start of the year, shane Goss' despair was, you know, all worldly, he was just incredible and you know, things have kind of softened and then he got injured and he hasn you know, he hasn't quite been himself since he came back and ultimately has been replaced on the number one unit with Brent Burns. What are we thinking about that, erin? What are you thinking about that situation?
Speaker 2:Well, I'm going to be candid, I hope it's temporary. I know that Burns was instrumental in Jarvis's goal against Utah, but you can't necessarily count on facing Utah every night. So there are some teams with some better penalty kills out there that they're going to have to face. So I mean, it was great to see that goal happen. It was great for Burns to get involved and to be doing those things, and I do think he does bring a little something on zone entries, although unfortunately the foot speed isn't quite there like it used to be.
Speaker 2:But for Shane Goss' fear, I really think that this is also the reason I use that word temporary is because we also have to look at the fact that, you know, again, the locker room flu impacted a lot of guys. He was unfortunately just coming back from injury when everyone was going down and getting sick and we don't know whether he was also battling with it. A lot of them did have it that never left the lineup and in addition to that, as we all know, he's a new dad. There's a new baby at home, so in those home games this man is not getting a lot of sleep. We've all been there. So you know.
Speaker 2:I just think that that's a case of adjustment period and just maybe I really wouldn't be surprised. He's on my sort of mental list of players who are going to come back out of this break really refreshed, because he needs this time to finish that recovery process from his injury, to perhaps get over any lingering strain of the flu that was going through their household and then just settling into life with a very young child, because that's a big life change. So we all know right. So I'm hoping that this swap is just temporary because we know that Shane Gossiper's primary value to the Canes is his game-changing ability on the power play as the quarterback, so we want him back in that role. I think I would be surprised if the Canes didn't think that that was the case.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I agree and for sure. He did this last year at Detroit.
Speaker 1:He had an outstanding season and of course he was doing the same thing with the Hurricanes and I love the way he runs the power play and I had mentioned on a previous episode where he was starting to get the same kind of magic going with Rantanen as he had with Marty Natchez, and you know he likes to get it to that guy that can open up and one-time it, and Rantanen is going to be one of those guys. Of course, if Jarvis is on the other side, he'll be doing it where Natchez used to do it. Now, interesting question Do we stay with Jackson Blake on the top unit or do we move Andrei Svechnikov up?
Speaker 3:Oh, I think Svechnikov needs to be there. I mean, I love Blake and his tenacity, but at some point you need that big body. You need that big body, you need that presence. And again, I think as much as anything with Rantanen there, that Svec and Rantanen can really play off each other well the way their game is, with that movement that I talked about and occupying that face-off circle and switching back and forth to that to net front, to behind the net. Both of them are really underrated in the kind of plays and passes that they can create from behind the net, which again makes it more difficult on opposing teams because you have to turn your skates, the goalie has to commit to look over one shoulder or the other. It just has to be a little bit more instinctual instead of having sight lines ready to go. So I think Svec needs to be there for this to be a truly dominant power play.
Speaker 1:So I think Svetch needs to be there for this to be a truly dominant power play. Yeah, and again, I think they'll be probably playing a minute and a half. That's what they've done for the most part this year with that number one unit. You want to have your best players on there, in my view, for sure you're going to want to have the top five guys you think you can put out on the power play, and Svetch, to me, fits that role for sure. So I agree, I'd love to see Svetch moved up there. And you know, obviously the second unit, not a lot of firepower, but that's okay, you know. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Well, with the amount of ice time the second unit gets, they're running right around a minute and 15 seconds give or take. So when you divide that between two or three power plays, they're getting 20 to 30 seconds. Usually it's not much time. So the point for them is simply you know, sure you want to try to have them get chances, and especially if they're taking a faceoff, but if they're coming in on the fly and just taking that puck for those 20 or 30 seconds, the main thing, the most important thing, is just to not lose possession, to be able to stay on long enough to be able to hand the puck over to whoever's coming out of the stall line or whoever's coming out for the bump-up shift afterward if there's no goal scored.
Speaker 2:So that's their job and as long as they're doing that job well, it really doesn't matter who's on that unit. And you might actually, if you get Blake on that unit, you might actually get a little bit of chaos in front of the net, and that could actually help, because that was the role Seth Jarvis used to play back in his younger years. On the second unit, power play. He was, you know, mucking it up in front of the net. So I'm sure Blake could do that. He's actually very good at gaining the slot, so that would be a good thing for him to do. He's actually very good at gaining the slot, so that would be a good thing for him to do.
Speaker 1:Well, you know that I mean Blake's going to be a part of it for sure. You've got Yusperi Kokuniemi will be one of the key members of that power play. You've got Brent Burns who will be, of course, quarterbacking that power play unit, and then it gets kind of interesting. Jack Roslevic has been on that unit, but we'll have to see how this all plays out at the trade deadline, because I certainly think he could be in play. And who would round out that power play for the Canes?
Speaker 2:Well, Blake, like you mentioned, and then, Hmm, that's a good question. I haven't really given it much thought. What do you think? Katie KK, Blake Roslevic hmm, that's a good question I haven't really given it much thought.
Speaker 3:What do you think? Katie kk blake, roslovich um, I guess robinson, perhaps you know he's he's showed a little bit more of a scoring touch than we were all were expecting, and he can also bring that physical puck possession like aaron mentioned, with trying to make sure you keep control of the puck to hand it over for the bump up shift. He would be an option there, so I guess that would perhaps be my. My initial choice would be rob.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I mean it it's a tough one, right, so that I think there's certainly. Oh, they've got, uh, taylor hall. Yeah, that's right, I just remember they've got taylor hall in there.
Speaker 3:Yeah, in some ways, though I I think Robinson might be better just because of what he brings.
Speaker 1:He's not as much of a passer.
Speaker 3:He's more of a shooter and so you need those. Otherwise, again, we're playing hot potato with the puck during the power play, which is not effective.
Speaker 1:Well, I think I'm sure they'll give Hall lots of opportunity Again. On that same podcast that Eric Tulsky was on, he did say some positive things about Taylor Hall as well. So clearly they have high hopes for him adding to the offensive side of the game and I think he could be a help there. But clearly they've got to strengthen that number two unit if they can, and we'll see how that all plays out. And you know, speaking about Goss' despair in the defensive core, you know a lot of folks aren't aware of this, but the Canes' defensive core has really been off the mark from a scoring perspective. You know we think back the last couple of seasons where we've had Burns. You know he's been up at what 18, 20 goals You've had. Obviously Brady Shea was up there and you had others who were enjoying. I think how many did Chatfield get last year? Did he get 10 goals last year?
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 1:So I mean you've got. You know, you just had a really significant amount of offensive scoring coming from that blue line and of course, this year adding Gossespierre. There was a hope that that would continue and certainly would help offset the loss of, for sure, brady Shea. But the Canes currently sit eighth in the NHL for goal scoring from defense. They've got 26 goals and just to kind of compare that to some other teams, columbus has 36. Okay, cale McCarr himself has 22.
Speaker 1:So I mean I know we're talking about an incredible player, but it's kind of interesting when you think the whole Canes defensive core has only got four more goals than Cale Now on the other side. Four more goals than Cale Now on the other side. Gossespierre as an individual is tied for 27th in the league with six goals, but he's tied for fourth with four power play goals. So that's a good sign. So he's definitely in the mix as far as power play goals are concerned. But clearly this is not a good situation for the Canes. They built their offense around that defensive core, adding to the goal total. What are we thinking about this, erin?
Speaker 2:Well, just in general, the Canes defensemen are on pace for about 10 fewer points this season and eight fewer goals. That doesn't sound like a lot, but when you're talking about these margins, you know where six goals is, you know, leading all the way up there, you know. So that is different, and I think one of the reasons it may hurt the Canes more than it hurts other teams is because the Canes have been constructed around the idea that you're going to get scoring from the blue line. That's been something that I've heard from the minute I became a Canes fan. Oh, don't you know our Ds pinch aggressively. Look, watch, you know they're going to go up there. The forwards are going to be back on the blue, and you know you watch. That happen frequently in games, the switching between the defense and the forwards. You don't see it quite like that on other teams very often. There's not that many teams in the league that use their defense that way, unless, of course, you're talking about Akhil Makar, who can be anywhere on the ice he wants to be, because he can also get back where he needs to be very fast. So looking at all of that, I'm looking at it and I'm thinking. You know this is kind of to me.
Speaker 2:There's a little piece of a puzzle that was unraveled, which is, you know, the thing that we keep saying why are the Canes giving up so many breakaway goals this year? The other direction, I think. We're seeing what's happening when the defense is pinching but they're not scoring. So they're getting in there, they're getting up near the net, they're making these a very aggressive play, and then they lose the puck and there's no one back at the blue line, but maybe one lone forward who cannot stop a two-man rush or a three-man rush by himself, whoever it might be. That's the hapless forward back at the blue line, and we've seen that more than once this year where those plays unfold and you're saying, well, who's supposed to be covering these people?
Speaker 2:So if the defense can't score, they have to defend, and that means they have to be less aggressive about pinching in opportunities where maybe the scoring chances aren't going to be there. So that's an adjustment, and it's the kind of adjustment we've been seeing the Canes make all year, as things have changed with the personnel. So it'll be interesting to see what they do ramping up for the playoffs in that area too. Are they going to get a little bit more conservative with the defense too. Are they going to get a little bit more conservative with the defense, or are they going to change how they approach scoring, in terms of you know what kinds of plays they're trying to make to get those chances? It's going to be interesting to see.
Speaker 3:I also think that to piggyback off of the when to pinch, I'm also not really liking their shot selection.
Speaker 2:It seems like when they're back at the blue line that they are throwing the puck at the net.
Speaker 3:They're not shooting the puck at the net, they're just kind of winging it in that direction which, because they're hurrying or they're not choosing intelligently or something like that, they're getting a lot of their shots blocked or they're whiffing on them altogether because they're trying to do it too fast and it's a lot of those opportunities that are turning into the to the rushes in the other direction and some of the goals that get scored because they they're all of their momentum is moving forward into the shot, it gets blocked and then they aren't able to catch up going the other way.
Speaker 3:So I would like to see them maybe hold on to the puck a little bit longer or be more consistent about if the shot is not there, if there's not a clear lane to the goal, then just dump it in. Let the forwards do what the forwards are good at. This is a Brad Brindamore system. If there is anything our forwards can do, it is go into the corners and come out of it with the puck, recover the cup. Anything our forwards can do, it is go into the corners and come out of it with the puck, recover the cup.
Speaker 3:So I think just perhaps a little bit more, like I said, a little bit more patience and a little bit more selectivity when it comes to shooting the puck would go very nicely hand in hand with not being overly aggressive when pinching.
Speaker 2:And this brings up a conundrum that they've had also this year, that you know that. I'm glad you said that, katie, because one of the things that's happening is they're throwing the puck at the net. There's no screen. Why is there no screen? Why is there no screen?
Speaker 3:Because both Ds are halfway up in the zone and there aren't enough forwards left in the zone.
Speaker 2:That's true. So they have to make sure that someone is in front of the goalie's eyes, or else these shots aren't going to go through at all.
Speaker 1:Well, think about a couple of the folks like just coming to the top of my mind, of course Brent Burns. You know he's been a big scorer from the blue in the past and he just isn't quite as effective.
Speaker 3:Predictable. Yeah, he's too predictable.
Speaker 1:Well, that's part of it. And again, you know, as he ages, I mean, things aren't quite as crisp and as fast as they might have been, and I think that might be a part of it as well. Sean Walker, to me, has had tons and tons of great opportunities and great shots. Now sometimes it's great saves, but boy, I expect him to score more, because he does get some high-danger chances, like he'll get in there and just fly into the zone and get right in, you know, on Broadway, as they call it, and he's had some great opportunities, so I expect he'll do more.
Speaker 1:And then again, dmitry Orlov, to me, is a guy that has a rocket but he seldom gets it in a place where he can score. Or, as you say rightfully, aaron, there's nobody around the net, so he's shooting it. It's either an easy save or it's gone wide, and sometimes, when it goes wide, of course it heads back to his own zone and he's kind of on the sideboard. So you know, it's been a bunch of different things and it's a different type of defensive core. You know you've got some new folks.
Speaker 1:I mean, we remember well how effective Brady Shea was. Gosh, he was outstanding. He'd be able to get in there and find the opening, go in and actually pick the corner, and I saw him do that in the last game with Nashville as well. That's hard to replace and I think you know the Canes are going to have to find a way to be more effective and whether it's getting bodies in front so they can, you know, block the goalie's eyes, or whether it's getting shots on the net or better placement of shots, they clearly got to find a way to get some offense out of that blue.
Speaker 2:Absolutely.
Speaker 1:Okay, now you know the Canes sitting in a great position, as I mentioned off the top. I mean it's kind of interesting, it's kind of unusual. The season it's been it hasn't been an incredible season for the Canes. They've had their ups and their downs and yet they're still sitting in a very enviable position, just one point back of second place in the Eastern Conference, and this is great. And you know, one thing we've seen with the Canes this year is they have been absolutely lights out at home. They've been phenomenal, and so they want that ice. They want home ice advantage in the playoffs, for sure. And you know, the way they're playing right now is kind of interesting. And I thought you know one of the things that we don't talk a lot about but it's another one of the great analytics that we can play with is PDO, and that's basically puck luck. And how are the Canes doing on that? Katie, have you got some ideas on the PDO side?
Speaker 3:Well, pdo being the combination of shooting percentage and save percentage, the way that it works is that if you are right around 100, then you are considered to have average luck. You are not lucky, you are not unlucky. And for every 10th of a point that you are under 100, you are a little bit more unlucky, and every tenth of a point you are over 100, you are just a little bit more lucky. And so you go, look at teams like that are at the top of the league, like the jets and the capitals, and they have very high pdos. It's like 103 or something like that. It's ridiculous. You're counting it in, not tenths of a point at that point in time.
Speaker 3:And then you go and you look at the Canes. The Canes are in the bottom of the league with a 98.53 PDO. They have been very unlucky when it comes to getting bounces to go their way or getting bounces to go against them in favor of the other team. And so the question then becomes are they just unlucky, and that's what it is, or do they need to come up with a mentality of well, you create your own luck, and I think that they can start improving their PDO, improving their luck, by working on. I mean you want to work on both. You want that save percentage to be higher, but I think their shooting percentage with all of the perimeter shots that they take, that it's more of a volume shooting team If they can really hone in on creating those quality chances.
Speaker 3:I think that will result in more puck luck, more bounces going their way, more rebound opportunities, more tip goals, that sort of thing. They get that. Their PDO goes up. Of course, if they're scoring more, they should be winning more games, putting more points in the standings, and then that goes right back to what you said, tom. Then they're going to probably start a playoff round as the home team and be in the driver's seat, exactly.
Speaker 1:Well, you know what? Perfect, Interesting, interesting, when we take a look at the PDO numbers. Okay, so the Canes are seventh from the bottom. Okay, now just to give you an idea of their company Nashville, philadelphia, montreal, ottawa, pittsburgh and San Jose are below the Canes. Okay, wow, right.
Speaker 2:Wow Right.
Speaker 1:You're going to love this one, Katie. The team just above the Canes is Colorado, exactly, exactly. There, you go.
Speaker 3:That has more to do with goaltending. I think they're on the way up too.
Speaker 1:But for sure, quite possibly. Yeah, it's definitely a real situation for the Hurricanes, for sure. And you know, somehow they've got to find a way to be more effective with their shots. They've always been a shot leader, for sure, and they've been one of the best at suppressing shots, as we know. So those metrics are excellent, but they've got to find a way to get better quality shots and you know this all goes back to the same thing is that they've got to find a way to get better quality shots and you know this all goes back to the same thing is that they've got to get more balanced scoring, they've got to get some more offense from the blue line, and all these you know metrics will start to come together and they'll make sense, but clearly, to this point, not a lot of puck luck.
Speaker 2:Well, and it comes down to that word that we always use about the Canes it's finishing. You know, right, you get the chances but you have to finish the chances. And I know that you know the Four Nations is underway and you know some of you guys probably saw the Canada game last night. And someone had a really funny comment about Seth Jarvis' assist. Yes, they say we see Jarvis make that play all the time to spring his line mates on a two-on-one, but it's usually Stahl and Martinick and there's no finishing.
Speaker 1:It's the two dads. There's no finishing, so.
Speaker 2:I thought about that. I was like that's the difference when you have you know what point in Marchand versus Stal and Martinick is whether that puck actually ends up in the net on that play. And that's a microcosm, that's one play. But then you put that into all of the different scoring attempts for the Canes and you start seeing the problem that there are a lot of players who just are low in the finishing quality and that needs to improve, whether they improve it or whether some new players come in eventually too. So that's going to be a lot of interesting things going on with that.
Speaker 3:And hopefully with Jarvis joining that top line if he's springing Ajo and Rantanen for a two-on-one, we'll have some much more positive results.
Speaker 2:I think that will be lovely.
Speaker 3:And that will help drive Jarvis' numbers too. I mean he finished the season with great numbers last year he did. But, the vast majority of the points that he got to pad those stats were once Gensel joined the team.
Speaker 1:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3:And so again, you know you put him with talented players and that PDO is going to start going up because that line is going to get the ball rolling on the finishing they will finish.
Speaker 1:No, no, I agree, and I think you know one of the challenges the Canes have and we talked a little bit about this is that they're not a great team at kind of crashing the net, which you know for some teams that's one are so good now that it's really hard to score. And you know they're. Obviously they're trying to find new ways which are, you know, they try to get higher in the net, just over the shoulders. You know you see a lot of goals like that, but you've got to be a great shooter to do that. And again it comes back to the Hurricanes are a lot of kind of lunch pail folk, as we like to call them. They're going to be hardworking, they're going to get in there and do things, but there aren't a bunch of natural goal scorers on the Hurricanes, and that's something that you know. They've got to find a way to be smarter about how they, you know, take advantage of the good opportunities. So hopefully the pot clock will improve and we'll see that. And you know there's lots for the Canes to work on as we talk about. You know, heading to this final stage of the season, for sure the blue line's got to score more. For sure the power play's got to, you know, get warmed up. And you know, one of the things that's interesting this year which you know I think also plays into all of this as we look at the final playoff run is, historically the Canes have been up at the top, you know, kind of you know just hanging out up there and holding on to first place in the division or whatever the case may be. And this year it's a little bit different and I'm kind of hoping what they'll do is catch fire as they head into the playoffs and be, you know, in that kind of frame of mind where they've got momentum on their side. And I think that would be a little bit different than maybe some of these previous seasons where we've kind of got beat up in the first or second round and then headed off to play golf. So yeah, that will be interesting.
Speaker 1:One of the interesting things too I wanted to touch on recently was the recall of Scott Morrow. Scott, of course, very highly rated in the Canes system, absolutely has been making huge strides this year. Rod Brindamore has been very complimentary. He said look, he's just been playing so well, we had to call him up. Look, he's just been playing so well, we had to call him up. If you look at what he's done as body of work in Chicago, he leads the AHL in assists and points by a rookie defenseman and he's tied for fourth amongst all defensemen in the AHL, which is kind of impressive. He's had two hat tricks this year. He's the first defenseman to do that in the AHL since 2013-14, and he's got three game-winning goals. This guy has been incredible. But I think the bigger news for Scott has been his development on the defensive side of the game. What did we think when we saw Scott in action?
Speaker 3:Katie oh well, I mean I think he was fine. I mean you can tell he's a rookie. A lot of people aren't going to like me for saying this, but as far as I'm concerned, the jury's still out as far as whether or not he's ready for an NHL role. I think that he needs to go back to Chicago and keep putting in the reps and the time and that sort of thing in there. He's definitely not served playing 11-7. And I know a lot of that again had to do with the flu and the injuries and that sort of thing.
Speaker 3:So, if they're going to keep him around, for that I mean there's no point Send him back, and probably even less popular with a lot of Canes fans out.
Speaker 3:There is my opinion that I think it is more likely that Scott Morrow ends up being a very key piece in a trade that brings a significant return to the Carolina Hurricanes rather than actually being a full-time Carolina Hurricane in the next season or two. I think that is more likely, and if it helps the Canes win a cup, then the Canes fans will eventually get over it. That's what the Avs did. They traded their top defensive prospect that everybody loved and was excited about for this guy who was just expected to be a middle six chippy four checker in Arturi Lekkonenen and Arturi Lekanen ends up scoring the Stanley Cup winning goal for the abs.
Speaker 3:So I again I think that Mauro, while he has been good, might end up being a bigger benefit for the Canes as a trade piece than an actual player, especially when you have Nikitian coming along. You just get too offensively heavy on the blue line if you're adding both of them next year. So we'll see. Maybe I'll be wrong and I'll be happy to admit it if I'm wrong, if he ends up playing a big role in McCain's defense in the future. But that's just the gut feeling I have as far as he's concerned right now.
Speaker 2:Erin. Well, I'll take the opposite view. I think they like him. Let me put it this way I'm not the best one for evaluating defensemen, especially when they're young, because it's a harder thing to do. You have to know a lot more about certain aspects of the game, statistically, than I know. Tom certainly brought up all the good points from what he's achieving in Chicago, but I think that the Canes typically, when they've invested this much time in a prospect and have brought them up and done these kinds of things, it typically hasn't been someone that they've included in a trade. There have been a couple of exceptions, but not that many. I mean I know that we could look at who Panamara.
Speaker 2:I can't remember, maybe Panamara that might be. I was trying to think of who else would there be? There really haven't been too many. They tend to like to you know most of their prospects are doing food and men to trade it's, they're further down the line.
Speaker 2:They're not just like they don't trade their high draft picks, they tend to trade down the line.
Speaker 2:So you could be right, Katie I'm not going to say that you're wrong, because you never know and it depends on how close they think they are to a cup and whether there's a player that that would be the key piece, Because, as we know, they're not afraid to move roster players for a key piece.
Speaker 2:So if there's somebody out there that's available, that would be, you know, just a slam dunk. Then I don't think anybody's off the table at that point. But I don't necessarily think they see him that way, primarily. So we'll see. But like you said too, 11-7 isn't the best way to see what a young defenseman can bring to the table, and it also kind of brings us all the way back around full circle to the beginning of the conversation, because that wasn't a great situation for Rantanen either, to be playing in those disjointed kinds of games two of his first six. So that's, you know that's not easy to do. So you know that might be where we also go all the way back around and say well, this is another reason why we should expect to see great things when he comes back from the Four Nations.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and with Rantanen, of course, we're hopeful he'll get a lot more ice time. So we want to see him up at 20, north of 20 minutes a game, and you know a couple of those games. He wasn't there. I just want to make a few comments on Scott Moore. I am really impressed with his development this year.
Speaker 1:I've seen a fair bit of the Chicago Wolves stuff.
Speaker 1:He is a guy that has the potential to, I think, play for the Canes next year.
Speaker 1:I really believe that strongly and I think what they're doing now is part of just taking a look to see where he is in his development, because, don't forget, they've got some big decisions that are going to have to be made as we head to the deadline and also into the summer because of, you know, free agents and some other moves, and you know and Nikitian is a key part of that he he's going to be critical to fill one of those spots.
Speaker 1:But I could see a situation where Nikitian and Morrow both join the Hurricanes next year. And see a situation where Nikitian and Morrow both join the Hurricanes next year and that would give them an incredible advantage from a cap perspective Because, as an example, if they replaced Burns and Orlov, you've just gained probably over $10 million because the cost for Morrow and Nikitian is going to be around two, two and a half. So I mean you're in pretty good shape and I think there's a lot there and I think for sure I would be it would have to be a blockbuster trade. This is my personal view. For him to go I don't say it's not possible, because Eric Tulsky is obviously he surprises us.
Speaker 2:No question yeah.
Speaker 1:And so I mean I don't I never say never, but you know we had talked a little bit about this. Our next session together is going to be really focused on the trade deadline and we're going to get into it in a big way. And there's a couple things that we'll add into the mix around. You know, possible ads to the Canes from different places, not just trades or acquisitions, but also within their own organization. So there's a lot of things that kind of come to play here. So we'll have some fun with that. In any case, I'm glad to see Scott Morrow get a little bit of ice time with the Canes. I think that's good. That's a good message to the younger players in the system.
Speaker 1:Another guy, that's really heating it up down there. Boy, he's certainly pushing for an opportunity. As well is, of course, bradley Nadeau. He's been on an absolute tear and so he's definitely finding his way in the American Hockey League in a big way and this has been great for him. So, yeah, we'll have to keep our eye on some of these young players down in Chicago and you know where they fit in the Canes' timelines. That's going to be critical, particularly heading into next year.
Speaker 1:Now I wanted to touch on one last thing, as we kind of wrap it up today, and of course that's the Four Nations Tournament. So first game last night interesting game Canada and Sweden started off. Looked like Canada was going to run them out of the rink, I think in the first 30 seconds, and Sweden came back. But I did want to mention Seth Jarvis, as you said rightfully so, he had an assist last night. He played about 11 minutes. Jarvis, as you said rightfully so, he had an assist last night. He played about 11 minutes, did some PK time. So a little bit of work.
Speaker 1:On the penalty kill, I thought he was effective pretty well every time he was on the ice. I thought he played a great game and you know they made a lot of comment about the fact he was so enamored with the fact he was sitting beside some great players, like you know, of course, sidney Crosby and some others some great players, like you know, of course, sidney Crosby and some others but he's not in awe of those guys. He can play right alongside any of them as far as I'm concerned, and he's proven that and he's definitely doing it on the world stage. So I thought that was an exciting part about last night's game. But also the other thing I wanted to say was it was a very intense game. This was not like some folks playing an all-star game. They were playing seriously and I thought the hockey was good. Ladies, what are your thoughts?
Speaker 2:I loved the 10-minute three-on-three overtime. We need that in the league. And uh, there were. There was that comment from uh, uh, was it mckinnon about? It was too much. But I, you know a lot of people took that one, that comment, seriously because it was, you know, printed, you know reproduced in print, so you know. But apparently there was quite a joking tone about that.
Speaker 2:You know, I don't think anyone thinks that if they went to a 10 minute three on three, that you know those guys, those guys would play you know nine and a half minutes of it. So it's, it's not. I think that there's coaches would adapt, that the adjustments would be made. But wasn't that exciting? I mean not to have a shootout and just to have them keep going, because the momentum you could see the momentum billing building right as they were hitting that five minute Mark, you know they started getting looser, they started taking more chances on both sides. There were some really good opportunities on both sides and uh, you know it was just that that was edge of your seat kind of stuff. So I want more of that. Yeah, what about you?
Speaker 3:katie. Oh, that game was incredible. It was a lot of fun. It's. It's always interesting to see how guys who are used to being the guy, all of them on the ice at the same time. Well, there's only one puck, and how do they adapt to it and play through it? And it seemed like these guys are the superstars for a reason because they're not going to be selfish and they learn quickly. They learn literally on the fly with each other and, of course, from a Colorado perspective, being able to watch McKinnon play with Sidney Crosby has been really cool because they are from Coal Harbor, nova Scotia.
Speaker 1:Exactly Both of them, and they train in the offseason. I spent time down there last summer, yeah.
Speaker 3:And seeing that and then alongside that it was fun seeing McKinnon and Crosby together as a duo. It was really fun seeing Jarvis with Marchand they both have kind of that little pesky get under your skin sort of energy and the celebration of his goal with Jarvis and was a point with him you know, it was just the energy and the fun and the personality that was wrapped into that whole thing was really really cool to see. So I hope we get plenty more content from that particular line, because that was awesome too.
Speaker 2:So these storylines.
Speaker 3:Part of what makes the Four Nations so much fun is just the storylines that you have with the different players that haven't gotten to play together, playing together or that haven't played together for their home country in a long time.
Speaker 3:I mean a lot was made of Ajo and Rantan and, having played when they were younger, before Rantan got traded to Carolina, and you know that this is an opportunity for them to reignite that chemistry that they had back when they were teenagers. And it's just like I said I I'm here for the storylines as much as anything and seeing how the, the players, connect with each other and and create these, these fun games and the fun subplots to go along with them.
Speaker 1:Well, I, I was thinking so much about you in the overtime, katie, because you had you had Nathan McKinnon. Kale, mccarr and and McDavid on the line, for goodness sakes, you're saying that like you've got to be kidding me it should be. You've got to be kidding me, right? I mean, that's just insane. And the announcers kept saying this is, oh my goodness, you know like, how can you stop that line?
Speaker 3:And so, many people on Twitter were bagging on McKinnon for taking all these shots. This is like a Canes fan bagging on Aho for taking shots. It's like he doesn't take them. Do you know how amazing this is? This never happens, yes, but it was incredible.
Speaker 1:And, yeah, kudos to Sweden as well, though, because they were, oh yes, they could have won that game easily and I thought they showed a lot of intestinal fortitude, so to speak, in that game and I was really impressed with it. Now, speaking about these relationships and some of the side stories, we've got Patrick Liney on the same line as Sebastian Ajo. Apparently, this is what I saw today. Now, that will be interesting. So these guys, of course, they starred in that World Junior tourney, alongside Pui Uyarvi, who's now playing with the Charlotte Checkers on a PTO after leaving Pittsburgh. That's an interesting one because, of course, liney with the Canadians now and that's in your world there. Um, what do you think about? Uh, this Finnish team? What are we thinking about that?
Speaker 2:I'm still very nervous about their defense. Um, it's, I think it's going to be, it's going to be tough sledding. I I my main thing looking at the U? S team, u S lines and who they have, have some of the, some of the players they have and what those players have reputations for, and then looking at our guys, I'm just saying please, please, please, don't let anybody um for carolina or colorado get hurt, because this is going to be a very difficult contest for the fins, I think coming up against usa for their first game.
Speaker 2:Um, that's just, it's, it's a lot. You, you know they're depleted already and they haven't even begun the tournament. So hopefully, the strategy of having a lot of people were upset, that Capococco was not in the lineup, that he's a healthy scratch today, but he hasn't been practicing as a regular roster member, he's been practicing as the extra and I think that the strategy there, whether you agree with it or not, the strategy there is to put have a bottom six. That's basically a gritty, grinding kind of bottom six, because they know they're going to have to compensate for the lack of defensive players. So we'll see how that goes. Well, they had Joel Armia there as well.
Speaker 1:Of course, he's another. Yes, oh, he's.
Speaker 2:Armia is an incredibly good tournament player and he's been known for that. He's played in the world multiple times, you know when? Uh, since especially Montreal hasn't been making the playoffs in the recent past. So he's he's he's known as a tournament player. He really loves, he shines in these kinds of moments, so I wouldn't be surprised if he did very well. Um, I don't know how many of the other five of the bottom six will get a sniff of a scoring chance, but if Armia gets a chance, he'll probably score, because he does do that and just something fun to watch for. When Yoel Armia scores in these situations, he typically scores twice. He'll have games where he does nothing, but then he'll have a two-goal game. So if he gets a two-goal game sometime in this tournament, you can say that you were forewarned for that, but that might not happen tonight, though. I mean, usa is a tough team to beat.
Speaker 1:I think they're going to be tough for Canada to beat, so it's going to be a very intense matchup between those two teams for sure. Well, each one of these games, of course it's a single game and your goaltender can be critical, and of course, the Finns have a pretty darn good one in UC Soros. I agree with you. If we look at this, do we have any teams we're kind of picking at this stage that we think are going to take the big award home, that we think are going to take the big award home.
Speaker 3:I think, despite the goaltending issues, I'm leaning towards Canada winning it all, because I think once, if they just want to turn up the pressure and turn up the heat, there's just not going to be any stopping. They're going to batter you line after line after line after line and just try to outscore you to death, and I think that gives them a little bit of an edge over the other teams, including the US. So we'll see how their goaltending holds up, but I just think that the offensive firepower that they have is going to help win the day for them in the end, erin.
Speaker 2:I think the US is going to beat Canada, and I think that I'm looking at not just the goaltending but also the defense. You know Canada's got a good defense they definitely do. But you know, your first pairing is Jacob Slavin and Adam Fox, you know. And then your second pairing is you've got Wierenski, I think, and I've forgotten who. But you look at these names and you say, okay, these are incredibly good defensive players. There's always that cliche about tournaments and cups and things being won from the blue line being won from the defense. If that's really true, I think we'll see that and that's probably what will happen. But who knows, maybe Finland will win it all.
Speaker 1:Well, you know, just to fill your point, it's Charlie McAvoy. I think that's going to be alongside.
Speaker 2:Oh, thank you. Oh, that's it. I couldn't remember who was next to him.
Speaker 1:Wierenski has been phenomenal this year. So I mean, you're talking about yeah, you're talking about a player that is just having a breakout season. So, yeah, I mean, there's no question that's a deep D. But you know, again, it comes down to it's, it's a. They're single games.
Speaker 1:You look at the Canada team. Of course they have superstar, you know kind of positioning with, with McDavid and with Nathan McKinnon, with Kael McCarran, and they have a good cap to support them. So they're a great hockey club. But you know what? I wouldn't knock out these other teams either. Anything's possible in a short series, as you know, and they're loaded with some great players and they're going to be playing hard, particularly as we saw with Sweden, and we'll see the same thing with Finland. And they're going to be playing hard, particularly as we saw with Sweden, and we'll see the same thing with Finland, much more so, I think, than Canada and the United States. These folks are really going to be putting everything they have into it. So, yeah, I think Sweden has got some more to give. They've got great goaltending as well. Oh, definitely, they've got some wonderful players on the blue. I was quite impressed with Sweden last night. I think they're going to be a thorn in anybody's side and they can definitely make their own case to be one of the key teams at the end. So tonight, big game with the USA and with Finland, and we're going to have to check in on that to see how that all plays out. So we've got something big coming up, of course.
Speaker 1:So we've got something big coming up, of course, following the Four Nations tourney just a couple of weeks after, of course, is the trade deadline, and this year I think it's going to be an important one. We've seen some activity early, as we know, with some number of major trades, but there's a lot to be done, and I think it's going to be a time when the Canes need to shore up some positions. We've talked a little bit about this in the past. For sure, they've got to shore up center ice. We think they need to add a little bit more in the blue in case of injury or whatever. So we also want to take a look and see what some of the other teams might be up to, because, again, as these teams strengthen themselves, that could be a major challenge for the Canes as well.
Speaker 1:So what I thought we'd do is next episode, we're going to concentrate on the trade deadline. We'll do a trade deadline primer so that Caniacs and Canes fans will have an idea of what they should be kind of keeping in mind as we head to the deadline. I think it will be a lot of fun. So, ladies, start to warm up the engine on that one and we'll get back and peel the onion back on what we think the Canes are going to be up to and some of the players that we think are going to be in the radar of Eric Tulsky. So always a lot of fun to be an armchair general manager and we'll get our chance for sure. And what we'll do as well is, I think we'll maybe send out to all the folks to send in whatever thoughts they have or questions, and we can certainly try to add those to it. Maybe we'll have a question period as well that we can answer some of those on a mailbox piece. So lots of fun coming up.
Speaker 1:But, as always, it's been great to talk hockey and never a dull moment with the hurricanes, and it's good to get a little bit of a break from the action so we can concentrate on some of this other information as well. But but lots of good stuff today, ladies, and lots of fun, as usual. So we'll look forward to getting together in the next week or so and continuing our discussions on hurricanes. For those of you who have been watching or listening, thanks again for joining us here on Storm Tracker. We really, really appreciate it. If you have any questions for Katie or Aaron or myself, please put those in the comment section down below. Or if you just want to say hi, we'll be pleased about that too. If you like this episode, please press the like button, and if you want to be alerted of future StormTracker episodes, please press the subscribe and the bell button, and we'll make sure you're aware when they are released. Again, thanks so much for joining us. We're going to look forward to getting together real soon right here on StormTracker.
