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stormTRacker Podcast
Tension Rises as Hurricanes Hunt for Scoring Momentum!
Well, in recent weeks, Carolina Hurricanes fans have been very concerned about the Hurricanes. In fact, prior to last night's big win against the Devils, the Canes were 5-5 in their last 10. And on the road, 8-9-1. This isn't the Canes. So what's going on? Well, they've gotten away from their heavy four-check game.
Speaker 1:They're definitely not playing the way that Rod Brendamore would say is the correct way to play, or the right way to play, and, in general, the Canes have had trouble scoring goals. So there's lots to talk about. What should the Canes be doing? Where are the challenges? And joining me today, of course, is going to be Katie Bartlett. Katie, how are you?
Speaker 2:Doing well. I Feel a lot better after last night's win.
Speaker 1:that's for sure, well for sure, and sad that our other partner in crime is not with us today, aaron Manning. But, aaron, hope things are going well for you today and we'll hope to get you back here real soon. So, yeah, the Canes a big win last night and again, some of the areas that we've been watching with the Canes struggle have been that you know that crew of top players and Rob Brendamore has been talking about this a little bit lately and saying hey, we're not getting enough from these top guys. And you think about Sebastian Ajo, andrei Sveshnikov, seth Jarvis now he's one of the big guys and, of course, martin Natchez. And those guys have really been struggling lately.
Speaker 1:And you know, you think about a guy like Sveshnikov. He's got 109 shots but he's only got four even strength goals. So he's struggling. He's been really challenged this year to put the puck in the net. Natchez got off to a great start but he's chilled so he's not getting it done right now. Not sure what's been going on with Jarvis, although last night we saw what we would expect from Seth. And again, I think the big guy in all of this is Sebastian Ong. Sebastian struggling this year, just not putting up the points, just not dominating as he has in the past? What's going on with that group? What are your thoughts on this offense and that forward crew Katie?
Speaker 2:Those four guys definitely are the key as they go. So the Carolina Hurricanes offense goes. Ajo's an interesting case because it definitely feels like he has not been producing the way that we expect, but he's still about a point-per-game producer.
Speaker 2:The difference is that he's not producing five-on-five the way that we need him to produce. He is picking up the power play points. He's got two or three shorthanded points, overtime points, a six-on-five point or two, something like that. But those five-on-five points that are so key and so crucial, especially as the Carolina Hurricanes operate, just haven't been there. And recently I would have chalked that up to the blend of more going on, all the different mixing and matching of the lines and that sort of thing. But Rod has backed off of that in the past week or two and left to the lines pretty consistent, left Jarvis up there with Ajo. So at this point it's hard to say he's still producing well, but just not to the not at the rate that we would be expecting.
Speaker 2:He got some, some five on five V5 points last night. So even though that one goal was a little fluky, goley probably should have had that one. There were others that he worked, that he produced. That line was motoring a lot better. So hopefully that's a turn in the right direction there and I think if Ajo picks up his production, jarvis' will tag along right right with him. But you're right, man, that the issue with Svetch right now is just really puzzling it. Last season you could have really chalked it up to. He's still not quite a hundred percent. He's been recovering from that knee injury so on and so forth, but he doesn't have that excuse this season.
Speaker 2:So what's going on? Is he just clutching the stick a little too tight? Is he trying to do too much? Is he disengaged? It's really hard to tell, but something's got to give, because we have to have him. We have to have him both on the score sheet and we need to have him as a physical presence as well. Whether it's along the walls in front of the net, he is important.
Speaker 1:There's some interesting things To me. Ajo has not been the player he was last year. Sometimes I see him kind of I don't want to say floating on the ice, but he's not the kind of happy, dominant guy that we've seen in the past and he hasn't. You know, on nights when he's on you can see like he's flying on the ice, he's making things happen, he wants to get a hold of the puck, he wants to dominate the play, and we're seeing less of that this year, and I'm not sure why. And the other thing that I thought was worth mentioning, when we talk about Ajo and the centers, this is quite a story.
Speaker 1:The Canes have 25 goals prior to last night. I guess they have another one now that Ajo scored, but 25 going into last night from their center ice, and you know that I mean Ajo had probably almost half of those. So you're looking at a pretty small number from, you know, stahl, coconemi, drury, jost, it doesn't matter, these are small, small numbers. By comparison. The Devils have 49 goals from their centers, the Capitals 46. Almost double. So we know there's a problem at center and we're going to talk a little bit more about that.
Speaker 1:But you know the Canes use a style that you know when you look at some of the analytics. They like to take the shots. A lot of their shots are coming from outside the zone. I mean I was looking at some things on NHL Edge. There's some interesting things. I mean the Canes' offensive zone time. They lead the league at 47.5%. They're number one. They're playing more hockey in the O zone than anybody. Several players on the Canes are saying most of their ice time, or a good portion of their ice time, in that O zone, and we look at guys like Goss, desperate, walker. Of course that's where they normally will join the plays to try to get them in the O-Zone. You've got several other guys Aho, sveshnikov, natchez, even Jackson Blake. So a lot of time is being spent in the O-Zone.
Speaker 1:But the Canes are still struggling to get goals and you know you look at some of the other metrics that I think are valuable is that you know you look at the shots on goal. Again, the Canes are right there. They're number two behind the Devils, got a tremendous number of shots but again, many of them not high danger and they've got to get tougher. They've got to get into those. You know those tough, dirty areas. You think about a guy that left and how well he's doing Stefan Nason. That's what he does and I think the Canes are missing that kind of player that gets in. And you know Jackson Blake tries to do that. He got a nice goal on a tip last night but that has to be more.
Speaker 1:You know getting in pushing, shoving, getting around that goalie getting in their face, and I think what's happening is they're getting a lot of shots but the goalies can see them and, of course, if they can, they usually save them. So you know some really interesting numbers that we can look at If you take a look at, and I know you've got some charts from Hockey Biz that you'd like to talk about too. Katie, what about the Carolina finishing side? What do you see in that?
Speaker 2:Oh, you're right. There are two Hockey Biz charts that are very, very interesting if you put them side by side. The one is what you mentioned with the shot generation when are the shots coming from? And what you want to see is dark red. That means that the team being represented there is producing a lot of shots in that area, so you have a lot of dark red immediately in front of the net, and then you have a lot of dark red immediately in front of the net, and then you have a lot of dark red around the edges of the O zone, but in the middle of the zone it's more blue, so the canes are generating fewer shots in that middle of the ice towards the top of the zone area. But then, when you look at the finishing again, you want the red to be darker because it means that the team is finishing more of their opportunities.
Speaker 2:And more chances from that area in front of the net where it's the most high danger area. They're blue.
Speaker 2:They are not finishing those, those really good chances at a at a decent clip right in front of the net. But you get get to the area that where shot generation was blue for the finishing. That's where they're a little bit more in the red, where they are finishing those chances. They are getting pucks to go in from that spot and what that tells me is that area is probably what we would consider the office area for Ghost and Burns and the other team. When they're up high in the zone and they're letting a shot go and what you mentioned is the reason they're getting the finish there is, even though they're not generating a lot of those shots when they do, there's traffic. Whether it's traffic from the other team's defenders or it's traffic from our guys, there is traffic. It blocks the goalie's eyes. It makes it harder for them to make a safe. When they're creating the rest of their shots they're high volume shots. They're not having that traffic and I don't care how high danger of a chance it is if the goalie sees it.
Speaker 2:The goalie is going to make a safe quite often so this is where, again, we need our forwards to be more engaged physically. That starts with fetch, but it doesn't end there and works its way down On that top line. If that top line is going to continue being Ajo, jarvis and Roslevic, it needs to be Jarvis. He's not very big, but he knows how to position himself, to be in slight lines and to make his size as effective as possible. Plus, he's so good at rebounds so he needs to make a concerted effort to get there, to take away the goalie's vision, to get the tips on pucks or to get the rebounds on pucks and create more opportunities for Rostelevic and Ajo to score.
Speaker 2:On that second line, it needs to be Svechnikov. Kokanyemi has a good shot when he uses it, so if they go in there and the intention is to get KK to shoot or to get Natchez to shoot because we all know that Natchez is a sniper as well Svechnikov can be there, using that big body, blocking those sight lines, getting those tips, getting those rebounds. I just truly believe that it would create a whole lot more opportunities and, with the shot volume created, make it more effective as far as finishing is concerned.
Speaker 1:Well, it's interesting because I think the two lines that have been most effective are the third and fourth lines in getting people in front of the net. I mean, if you look at Stahl's line, I can call them the third line. I know Rod doesn't like to do that, but if you look at Stahl's line, those guys that's where they live, and particularly a guy like William Carrier. He makes his living mucking around in front of the net trying to make something happen. He loves to get the puck behind the net and try to get in front. You know he'll put his shoulder down and try to make his moves.
Speaker 1:I think that line is really doing what is Kane's hockey and doing it well. And yeah, they don't have as many goals, but they certainly are creating a lot of offense. They're keeping the play in the offensive zone, which is always a great thing, and of course you know they're getting their chances. And one of the things that I think has kind of diminished a little bit has been the ability for the D-Corp to take advantage of that. So getting great shots on getting possible goals, I mean we've seen some more lately from a guy like Sean Walker. He's getting some good chances now he's getting in there, I think he's feeling a lot more comfortable.
Speaker 1:We'll talk about him in a minute, but I think again, I think the Canes are not getting in there. They're not making it tougher on the goalies. And I think the Canes are not getting in there, they're not making it tougher on the goalies and I think somebody has to start to do that. Now, talking about that second line, sveshnikov, kokaniemi and Natchez, I have not been particularly impressed with that line at all. You know, defensively you've got concerns. Of course, I think Natchez is probably one of the worst defensive wingers in the league. I think you've got some stats on that. Maybe do you, katie.
Speaker 2:I just remember when they put up the stat card I think it was a JFresh stat card on X a couple of days ago that he was ranked in the 10th percentile for even strength defense. So yeah, that puts Natchez as a defensive liability for sure.
Speaker 1:Yeah. So that line, I think again, is they have their challenges defensively. We're going to talk about Kokuniemi. I think, frankly, I think his runway is diminishing fast. I think, frankly, I think his runway is diminishing fast. You know, I just mentioned the challenge the Canes have in getting offense from their centers. If it isn't awful, they don't get any offense to speak up. They've got to fix that. If they're going to go anywhere this year or next or in the future, they're going to have to do something about that. So we'll talk a little bit more about that in a while.
Speaker 1:So clearly, the forward side last night was more what we like to see, but it hasn't been consistent. It's been very inconsistent and I think a lot of Canes fans are wondering, you know, are we going to be able to turn the ship around or do we have to make some moves? So we'll talk again a little bit more about that too. Let's talk about the D-Corp for a minute. You know the defensive side, slavin and Burns, you know their plus number together is okay, it's close to you know, even it's probably three or four. Gossespierre and Walker have been doing better lately and I think, particularly defensively, and I thought Walker played a particularly strong game last night. Not sure of the status of Ghost so we'll have to hear about that, but his role is really to drive the power play and he's been one of the best in the league, so really coming through, I think, in his regard.
Speaker 1:And Orlov and Chatfield boy, they started immensely, Boy at the start of the year. I think there was one point where they were plus 38 not so long ago, which is insane. Orlov was at the top, Chatty wasn't that far behind at like 18. So it's just quite a story and they fell off quite a bit In fact.
Speaker 1:Orlov got down to a plus 14. So he had gone down and lost a minus 6 over a period of games and a similar number for Chatfield Now Orlov last night had a big game was plus three and had a goal. So that's good news. But those guys have been called upon to do a lot and you know you kind of wondered if at some point it's going to wear on them a little bit. This is kind of new for them in the Kane situation to be, you know, carrying these big minutes, to be playing in the tough situations like they have. And again you wondered if they were just leveling off a little bit. But I know you've got a detailed analysis on the D course, so I'm going to let you do it with the analytics.
Speaker 2:Well, it was just interesting looking through Natural Stat Trick at some of the statistics when it comes to the D pairings, because they collect it as the group and until last night the Canes had started every single game with the exact same D pairings.
Speaker 2:It was consistent from the beginning of the season, right through the first game against the Devils, through the first game against the Devils, and so I really thought it was interesting, because when you compare the expected statistics versus the actual results, it shows a trend that's a little bit concerning, and I do want to qualify this first. This is expected goals for and expected goals against. When they are on the ice, this is not necessarily for them as a deep pair. There's lots of other considerations to take into account as far as who the forward group is that are out there, who the goalie was, whether or not the goalie made a save that he should have made or not, that sort of thing. So there's plenty of other factors that come into this, but the idea behind these stats is that the one consistent variable in this stat is that this D pair was out on the ice when this stat was generated. So the first I looked at was expected goals for, expected goals against and then the percentage of goals for as opposed to against.
Speaker 2:Okay, so, for example, you look at Slavin and Burns, they're expected goals for and this was through the first New Jersey game. This does not include last night. While they were on the ice, it was expected that the Canes would have scored 27.17 goals, had 21.98 goals scored against them, which means that they would have had a favorable rating of 55.29% of the time they were on the ice, there was expected to be a goal scored for them rather than against them. That's just how those stats work. Look at our three pairings. Our three pairings out of 73 eligible pairs, because I did this based on 200 minutes, so there wasn't some wonky pair that ended up there that really hadn't played much time together. So, out of D pairs that have played 200 minutes, there are 73 of them so far this season across the NHL.
Speaker 1:So a little over two per team average.
Speaker 2:Yeah, the Ghost Walker pairing ranked 10th for expected goals. Great at driving offensive chances Orlov and Chatfield right behind them.
Speaker 2:11th for their expected goals for percentage generation Also excellent, and even Slavin and Burns, who we associate more with the high matchups, the defensive side of things. We're still in the top 20%, at the 18th ranked in the NHL. This is expected. So this is what the team should generate when on ice. But that's all theory, that's all expected. What actually happens when they are on the ice? That tells a different story.
Speaker 2:Slavin and burns are almost even. They have there's been 25 goals scored while they've been on the ice for the hurricanes and 24 against five on five. Five on five so almost dead even, which is kind of surprising because whenever slavin's out there we expect them to shut down the other team, not give up more goals. And five on five, that duo has given up more goals than the other two pairs. Granted, they see a little bit more ice time, but ice time is still pretty balanced in Brenda Moore's system, so it doesn't account there. The best results-wise has been Orlov and Chatfield, like you mentioned. With that plus-minus They've been on the ice for 28 goals for 21 against. Okay, but the real surprise has been the Goss' spare Walker pairing, because while they were 10th in the league for expected goals, they are generating lots of chances as a team with that pair out there, they have only created 16 five on five goals while they've been out there.
Speaker 2:The team has only created those and they've had 19 scored against them. So while they were 10th in expected goals for percentage, they were 55th out of 73 in actual goals for percentage, because they have given up more goals than have been scored yeah, yeah so that is, that is an area of growth, moving forward.
Speaker 2:That is, it's a growth on the defense as a whole, specifically on the ghost walker pair. It's also a goal for the team as a whole. Just finishing, for the team as a whole needs to get better yes but if they are out there creating these opportunities, they, and the forwards out there with them, need to start taking advantage of those opportunities and putting them in the back of the net yeah, well, that number seems about right.
Speaker 1:I mean, interestingly enough, the Canes are number one in terms of, you know, their defensive zone situation where, in terms of the puck being in their zone, they are the least defended against. In that regard, they sit at just over 34%. So they are a team that they lead with puck in the other zone. They lead with puck not in their zone as well. So they are a team that's definitely doing what you would want to do keeping the shots against down and putting lots of shots against the other team. So they're doing the right kind of things and this should help all the metrics. In my view, they should be scoring more. In my view, they should be giving up less. Okay, simply because of the way they play and the amount of time they spend in each the O zone or the D zone.
Speaker 2:So interesting numbers.
Speaker 1:Now you had also put together some stuff with hockey biz. That I thought was interesting as well. Katie and you talked a little bit about the 5-on-5 defense side, and I wanted to see what you've got there as well.
Speaker 2:Well, if you look at the chart overall, it's good. When you're looking at the defensive charts on hockey biz, you want a negative number. Yeah, so I believe it's a negative seven that they have, which is good.
Speaker 2:But if you look at the Canes charts, in the past like last season I think they ended the season negative 18%, negative 22%. So that negative seven is far and away not the kind of dominant Hurricanes defensive metrics that we're used to seeing. Just like we mentioned before, this is about shot generation the kind of dominant hurricanes defensive metrics that we're used to seeing. Just like we mentioned before, this is about shot generation.
Speaker 2:That chart does not show anything about quality of shots or which shots actually become goals, anything like that. It's just where the other team is allowed to generate their chances, and this chart was featured on an X post earlier this week by one of the Canes reporters. Yes, and talking about how the dark red area, where a lot of chances are being created, are right in front of the net.
Speaker 2:They are, which is indicating that part of the Canes' problem is they're not doing a good enough job on clearing pucks out of the area. If there is a shot and there's a rebound, that means that there are second chances or that they're allowing passes to go cross crease from one side of the goal to the other side of the goal. That they need to do better job defending in front of their net, preventing rebounds from becoming second and third chances, boxing out their guys, that sort of thing. If they're able to lock that particular piece of their defending down, those defending numbers should go up, which means their minus number will go down and get a lot better.
Speaker 1:Well, and the goal by Palat last night was exactly that, where he put Neal Cross in front of the crease and he was wide open on the left side and just tapped it in. So, um, yeah, your analysis is right. On. Interesting thought though and certainly I know there's been a lot of uh question recently on on x about this too is you know? Should we look at the canes, considering some changes on the blue in terms of maybe putting some players with different players? I mean, they've?
Speaker 1:Rod blendemore's had a lot of excitement up front and he's tried different combinations. Timmy Gleason has kind of been left alone and he's kept the decor exactly as it started the season. So do you think there might be some opportunities here? We did see an interesting spin last year last night rather where Sean Walker teamed up with Dimitri Orlov one of the very few shifts there together and I thought he did a real nice job and set up a beautiful goal. I've often thought that Walker should move up with Orlov, and Chatfield would be better suited with Goss Despair because of his defensive acumen. What are your thoughts on possible tweaks on the blue line?
Speaker 2:I mean, that sort of change definitely isn't crazy. I have my doubts. I have a feeling that they like the pairs as they are and they're going to stick with them, barring injury, and part of the reason that Walker was able to end up with Orlov for that shift, you know, had to do with the change off of a power player, pk or something like that, and they did look good together. But the opportunity also came because ghost is injured and so they do have to mix around a little bit and so you know, see what, see where smith ends up fitting better, that sort of thing, although he and he and and Walker looked better than fine yesterday.
Speaker 2:They were fine, yeah, but one thing we did get to see is that when Walker's playing with Ghost, walker has to be the defensive conscious for that particular pair in order to let Ghost do what Ghost is great at.
Speaker 2:Yes, and by being paired with Smith, I mean Smith has some good offensive capabilities as well, it did give Walker more freedom to drive play, to be that offensive engine, and he was really, really good last night. And so that's where I think it could be fun. If just here and there you know see how it looks, give him that chance alongside an Orlov, or even maybe alongside Slavin. If you know Burns has just come off from power play to team and needs a rest, send them out there together and see what kind of play Walker can drive. Because it got good results last night. I would love to see more opportunity for those kinds of results in the future.
Speaker 1:Well, I mean Chatfield and Gossespierre had played together in Ghost's previous incarnation with the Kings and I thought they looked good.
Speaker 1:I think Sean Walker and you know really starting to be a strong believer in Sean Walker. You know he's starting to really get the system. We're hearing it in the broadcast. They're talking more and more about Sean Walker. Walker is a guy that really likes to eat up minutes. Okay, his best season by far was with the Flyers and he played over 20 minutes a game that year. He's a guy that I think deserves and should get more playing time and you know we've talked a lot about this potentially using him on the PK and giving Burns a rest or whatever. I'd love to see him jump up to that second pair and play 18 to 20 minutes on that pair and I think he'd be outstanding. He's a guy that's being underutilized. He's a heck of a defenseman. They signed him on a five-year deal. This guy. He's obviously a player they believe in and I think he's being held back a little bit and not that. Pat Neal isn't great, but I'd love to see Walker get more.
Speaker 2:I think part of it is just that time that it takes to acclimate to the Kane system. Yeah, and I think he's got that time now. He's got that under his belt and he's looking really good. I don't know if you heard the interview in the locker room with him after the game last night, but he was. I mean, he was all smiles. He was just obviously energized with what went on with the game and the opportunities he was able to create. You can tell he's really loving it here and I agree with you, I would love to see him get more time and, uh, anytime they do those posts for who gets the first goal. I've been putting sean walker's name there.
Speaker 2:I just I believe just one of these days it is going to happen that he is going to figure it out not that he hasn't figured it out, but that all of the momentum he's been creating is finally going to break through and he is going to start putting points up on the board, whether that's with ghost, or that's with orlov, or that's with slavin, wherever he's yeah, that's with smith, wherever he's put. I think eventually he's going to break out and he's going to be a stud and I hope he can. He can finish out every single one of those five years that he has on that contract. Thanks.
Speaker 1:Well.
Speaker 1:I think you're right and you know you always look for the same thing, that is, is he getting chances? And he is. He's getting in on some clear shots, he's getting great shots from the point and so on. But yeah, I believe that there's a real opportunity with Sean and you know it was the same situation we've seen before. It was the same with Burns, it was the same with Orlov. You know it takes a little while to get your sea legs with this system and he's really starting to find it. Now he's feeling much more comfortable. He can see that he's got his confidence on the ice and this guy can really fly. So I'm excited about what he's going to be able to bring to the table and clearly, again, I'd like to see him get more playing time and hopefully they'll find a way to do that, because I think he's definitely earning it at this point.
Speaker 2:He's also one of the most physical defensemen that we've seen. A lot of people don't realize that he is really good when it comes to getting in the corners and laying hits and that sort of thing. You can't push him over, so that would be part of the fun of seeing him paired with Orlov is. That would be quite the heavy duo out there, that's right To go after another team's top or second line.
Speaker 2:That would be a heavy, heavy line out there, because he can hit and he can get physical and he does have that heaviness to his game. It's not just the offense.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I mean, if you look at his hit numbers they're usually pretty significant. So you're right on. So the decor can be better. Obviously, you know we're going to have to watch.
Speaker 1:With Brent Burns, he was leading the team in ice time, which is somewhat surprising. I think that's questionable. I think he should have his ice time reduced a little bit. He's starting to show some offense now, which is great because for him that's really the hallmark of his performance is driving the offense, and he got away from that for a while. His numbers are quite small for him at this stage, but he's starting to show now that he's. He's back in there trying to make things happen offensively. So again, I don't I'm not concerned about the D core. I don't think changes are required there. They might tweak a few things, but I think the six person group that they have very strong. So, feeling good about the Canes D.
Speaker 1:Now let's move to goaltending. So okay, and I know you're a huge fan of Piorico-Czajka, so I'll be a little bit tender on this one. I think the Canes have been out-goaltended a number of times where the other team's goaltender has just beat ours. It's as simple as that. We saw that on Saturday Jacob Markstrom. He was outstanding and he just beat Coach Eckhart. It was as simple as that. And I think we've seen a little bit of that. And one of my concerns right now Piotr has been inconsistent. He's played two or three great games and then he'll have a stinker, or he'll go out there and make an outstanding save and we've got some numbers on the high-danger chances and he's one of the best and then he'll turn around and let in an easy one. He's just not quite there right now and as a number-one goaltender and you're 1A and almost 1B.
Speaker 1:because of the situation for the Canes, I think this is a concern and again the Canes were looking to get some help. You know they tried to get in on some deals. I know they were after Mackenzie Blackwood and he just signed a big deal with the Avalanche and I know you're happy about that, katie, but the Canes missed out on him and he's a heck of a goaltender.
Speaker 1:And the question here is that are the Canes thinking about, you know? Are they still thinking about trying to patch this up, or what are they thinking on the goaltending side? We did see Tukarski last night come in and do a serviceable job, but you know, if he has to play much more, I think that's a question. Certainly Spencer Martin, he couldn't get it done so he's back in Chicago. So you know the Canes struggling with certain things. They've been okay in the high-danger side. They've been struggling with some of the easier saves that they should be making. And I know one thing that was interesting is on the high-danger numbers, looking at NHL edge, piotr is one of the best. He's in the top five doing outstanding work on those top saves and we see him sometimes making these incredible saves and we go wow, and then he turns around and one comes into the side or something and he slips in between his skates or who knows what.
Speaker 1:Anyway, I think I believe the Canes still have some work to do in goaltending. We also know that Freddie's still a couple of months away and we don't even know if he'll be back at that stage. It might take longer, who knows? This is going to be key, a key period for the Hurricanes. And then you know you've got Piotr with the injury concern you always have that because of the way he plays. You know he tries to get into the mix and do certain things which he probably shouldn't do. So I'm a person that believes strongly the Canes still need to make a move. But tell me what you're thinking about the goaltending right now and, in particular, what you're thinking about Piotr.
Speaker 2:Well, I think right now, unless something falls into their lap, the team even though they explored options for Blackwood are going to ride with what they have.
Speaker 2:They're going to hope for the best with Piotr and Tokarski and cross their fingers that Piotr does not do something to get himself hurt again. It's hard to evaluate exactly where Kochenkov is, because it's not ideal. Ideal would have been that Freddie didn't get hurt. Not realistic, I know that, but because he would have been the veteran and you don't want to overplay Freddie, you don't want to put too much pressure on Kochenkov, and so it was an ideal situation where you could have, as they started the season, a rotation every other start. They're both getting consistent playing time, but they're not being overplayed and that sort of thing. And so the injuries, combined with the weight of expectation on his shoulders, with Freddie being out, I think is part of what has made this season a little bit more difficult for Kochekov. He wasn't coming in and just you know, do what you can and we'll take it, because our other goalies are out and we have no other choice.
Speaker 1:He is the man.
Speaker 2:Right now he is it, but it is still his first full season on the NHL squad. He spent significant time in the AHL. In the past was it three seasons.
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:So it is an adjustment and he has played great sometimes that New York Rangers game. I could go back and watch that over and over and over again. He was so good in that game. But a lot of the other games, whether it's the game against the Capitals or that first one against New Jersey the other night, he's just a little off. He's just not quite as sharp as he needs to be and he definitely needs to improve on that and he can improve on it. He needs some time. He is a young goaltender. Still, you know we think of him. What is he? 24, 25, something like that. Yeah, that's right For a goalie. That's young. Goalies aren't considered to truly be in their prime window until about the age of 26, 27, 28, something like that. So you know, he still just needs some time to round his game into form, especially against NHL competition. The question is, do the Canes have the time for him to round into that form?
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:And to a degree I think they do. But this season he needs support, he needs help and right now Tokarski is doing, as you said, a serviceable job. It should not be the overreaction that we're seeing on X right now, people saying, you know, should Tokarski start the next game against Columbus because of how well he did? No, no, you gotta keep. Kochenkov has to have consistent start. Don't not play him for a week and a half. No, no. But can the Canes make it work, provided that Piotr stays healthy with this duo? Yes, I don't think it's quite the urgency that we felt before. With them it is solid. They can work with it right now and hope for the best when Freddie gets back. But if a good opportunity comes through, then, sure you know, go for it.
Speaker 1:Well, I think the question that kind of affects a lot of discussions around this is really where do the Canes want to try to end up this year?
Speaker 2:Because clearly I mean one of the things with the goaltending.
Speaker 1:We know this is the case that in the offseason they're going to have to make a move to get another goalie, and they're going to have to get a goalie that's substantial Because, you know, you're right, piotr is still young, he's still kind of, you know, learning his trade and so on. But they need another goalie they can count on, not someone that's good for 10 or 15 games. They need someone that can play 30 or 40 games and certainly can step in in case of injury. I think the biggest challenge when you look at the Canes and we all struggle with this is that we're a bit spoiled. Now we expect the Canes to actually go deep and actually compete for the cup, and I know, as crazy as that sounds and so the Canes playing the way they're playing right now and looking like they're going to end up in the you know first round out or whatever the case may be, is not where we would want to be, and I can tell you that I feel very strongly that the owner of the Canes, mr Dundon, is not thinking that he just wants to get in the playoffs. You know he wants to go deep and I think there will be more discussions on. You know what kind of moves can be made, and we'll talk a little bit more about that in a minute.
Speaker 1:But again, piotr's doing what he can. He's being asked to do a ton. He's carrying a huge load right now. He knows that he's got to carry the load. He knows that. There's no question, the guys that are trying to fill in, whether it's Takarski or Martin, they're just not going to get it done and they'll be fine for a game here and there, but he has to carry the weight. So a lot of pressure for this young man. And again, he's making the great saves. He's just got to figure out how to stay focused and not let those softies in.
Speaker 2:And going back to what we talked about with the offense and the defense, the offense tightens the screws a little bit. The defense tightens the screws a little bit. Yeah, goaltending tightens the screws a little bit. All those just little adjustments end up making a big difference as far as their wins and losses. If you take empty net goals out of the equation.
Speaker 2:The Canes have been involved in a lot of one-goal games, so you make those little adjustments and that can result in either that one goal for or not giving up that one goal against from every level. As far as the players, a lot of people are talking about there need to be these big sweeping changes and that's just not the case. The Canes are a really good team. They are where they're at for a reason, but they're just missing it on the little things. If they can tighten up those little details, then they'll be back to winning more of those one or two goal games rather than giving up those one or two goal games, and that applies just as much to Piotr and the goaltending as anyone else. Make the saves you're supposed to and one or two more beyond that, and your team's going to win more often than not and your team's going to win more often than not.
Speaker 1:Well, you know, the Canes have been acting for a little while now as one of the middle-of-the-road teams. You know they're good enough to win some games. Then they lose some games and you know you look at that last 10 where they had gone 5-5, that's just not the Hurricanes, that's not what we expect, and definitely have not been nearly as effective on the road this year. Man, they've been the last two or three seasons they've been outstanding on the road and so clearly, yes, a few tweaks here and there. I think again, I think they need some help in some areas and we'll throw some ideas around in a minute.
Speaker 1:I wanted to kind of shift gears a little bit. We've got the World Juniors going on right now and of course the Hurricanes have three players currently playing in that tournament. Of course, bradley Nadeau playing for Team Canada, and then you've got a couple of folks on the Swedish team Felix Ungersorg and Alex Boulet. Three good young prospects, three good young prospects. I know that Canada kind of got upset in their first game and didn't see much of Nadeau. He, he was there but I didn't see a lot from him. But the Swedish side certainly Ungersorm and Boulet have immediately had an impact. Have you, have you been able to check out any of that, the highlights or anything on that, kitty?
Speaker 2:A little bit. I think I saw that today Ungersorm already has at least two points in the Swedish game before we jumped on. I don't think the game was over by the time we started recording, so maybe he has more at this point. So that's great.
Speaker 1:He's being effective, he's creating a lot the other guy Bule.
Speaker 2:Bule yeah, I think he's been used mostly as the 13th forward, so he hasn't had the opportunity as much, but he has a point or a goal or something like that. So yeah, he's done yeah, contributing and that he's getting in there. Um the Canada side, the whole thing has been a little disappointing for them, unfortunately. Yes, and Nadeau started off the tournament on the top line alongside of Avs touted prospect, callum Ritchie.
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:What I was able to watch is it looked like they were creating a lot alongside Easton Cowan and doing some good driving of the play. I didn't get to see much of the Latvia game and it must not have gone well for Nadeau because with line rushes this morning what they posted on X, he was down on the third line and no longer up on the top line with Richie. I don't know if that sticks or how that's going to work out, or maybe he'll have more opportunities on that line, more chemistry and be able to create more production. But I haven't minded his game. I thought he looked good and I think you definitely see some of the defensive tendencies that being part of the Canes and Wolves organization will breed into a player, because his forechecking I thought was really good, but he needs to. He wasn't producing on the score sheet, unfortunately.
Speaker 1:Well, again with Nadeau. He was late going to the Team Canada camp because of course he was playing with the Wolves and had some games just before heading to camp. He'll come along, I'm not concerned about him. I was really excited about the two suites.
Speaker 2:What I've seen of.
Speaker 1:Unger Soren he has made a number of wonderful plays that have ended up in goals or great scoring chances. Man. He made some incredible plays where he'd take the puck, he'd show confidence with the puck, he'd find an open area, he'd do whatever he needed to do to get the pass on the stick of the guy that was going to shoot it, and so on, and I think he's a guy that's showing what we would expect from him, remembering he's a 19 year old guy, so like he's got a lot of runway to go and he's holding his own quite nicely against the top juniors in the world Alex or Oscar Vule rather, oscar Oscar's an interesting one. He he's. He's a guy that when we drafted last year, he was drafted at 133.
Speaker 1:And the general book on him was that he was just a heck of an offensive player. He's got great offensive skill. He sees the ice well. He makes a lot of, you know, excellent plays on the ice and he showed that scoring a goal and also, you know, making some things happen when he was on the ice the other night in the game that I watched as well. So he's again. He's a younger guy. He's cutting his teeth with some of the best and holding his own, so I've got a lot of excitement around Oscar Boulay, and I think he's a guy that the Canes have a lot of interest in as well.
Speaker 1:So it's great to see these folks in the tourney and of course I know you're happy Callum Ritchie looking good. I think he scored a goal the other day too, so it's all good.
Speaker 2:It was a pretty one too.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it was a beauty. But yeah, I think this is great and we'll just keep an eye on them and see how they're doing and hopefully the three of them will continue to show very well against the top players in the globe under 20 years old.
Speaker 2:So that's kind of fun, yeah.
Speaker 1:so now I thought we'd also have some fun. We've got some mailbag questions. We put that out to folks on X and we had a number of questions and a number of folks that came back to us. Cody had some interesting questions. Cody wanted to know about the defensive side and particularly looking at next year, and he said who do we think Chatfield plays with if and when Orlov doesn't resign? So there's a question do we think that Orlov's going to return? And I'll ask you the three questions at once in a minute.
Speaker 1:But the question here is do we think Orlov re-signs? Or, if not, where's Chapio going to go? What do we think happens with the Goss to Spare Walker pair? Will they stay next year? Will they be together? Will they be broken up? What's going to happen there? And finally, do we expect that the Canes will re-sign Brent Burns, probably to a team-friendly contract? So the Canes will re-sign Brent Burns, probably to a team-friendly contract. So basically, we've got two guys who are going to be unrestricted free agents in Orlov and Burns. And of course we do know that the expectation is that Alexander and Nikitian will be playing with the Canes next year. So what do you think? Do you think Orlov returns. Do you think Burns returns? What happens?
Speaker 2:I think the easiest part of that to answer is my expectation is that Burns will not return. I know we love his bigger-than-life personality and he fits with the locker room and that sort of thing, but he's a 40-year-old defenseman next year and there has been a little bit of a step. And the Canes have guys that need a roster swap.
Speaker 2:They have too much talent in the system to forego their ability to come up and play for the team in favor of somebody who, in hockey terms, is too long in the tooth to stay with the team, even someone as great as Burns. What I would love to see is I would love to see Burns get a front office job somewhere with the organization so he can still stay at Kane, he can still have his fingerprints all over the organization. This happens at a lot of different organizations. It happened last season with the Avs and Andrew Cogliano. The impact that Cogs has had for the team from his position has been tremendous and I can only imagine that Burns would have a similar impact. Raleigh, in that area, would probably love to have a semi-permanent presence here, but no, I don't think Burns is coming back.
Speaker 2:Orlov is more of the interesting question. At the beginning of the season I would have said, no, right, he's fine, he's good, but we've got Nikitian coming, we've got Morrow coming and we've got other great defensive prospects in the system. No, but he has really played well this year, especially after a little bit of a slow first 10 games or so. But then he really picked up steam and he and Chatfield have great chemistry together. So I think there's probably a good. I would put it straight at 50-50. They re-sign him and bring him back for no more than another two-year deal versus letting him go.
Speaker 2:If they bring him back, I expect Orlov and Chatfield to stay together. They've been good, they've been effective, keep them together. And then I would imagine that Ghost and Walker stay together, and then that would put Nikitian up with Slavin and imagine what a duo that would be. I don't remember exactly, though I believe isn't Nikitian a lefty?
Speaker 1:He's a left shot, yeah.
Speaker 2:That would mean that one of them would have to play on their offside, Although I believe Nikitian has oh yeah, he's played the offside and Slavin has Both of them have.
Speaker 2:So either way would work and I think that would be a man. Can you imagine getting to come to the NHL and having Jacob Slavin be your offside? That would be pretty incredible. So that's what I expect there. And that goes back to the Ghost Walker. Yeah, if Orlov comes back, you keep Ghost and Walker together. If Orlov does not come back, I think it makes it pretty straightforward. Unless they sign another defenseman, you put Nikitian with Chatfield, you still keep Ghost Walker together and then you put. Actually, no, what I would do is I'd move Walker up with Slavin and then I would put Morrow down with Ghost, because I don't think that you trust Morrow with the kinds of minutes that come along with playing alongside Slavin, and I think Chatty provides a lot of good defensive defense before the offense, and so putting him alongside Morrow with sheltered minutes and help to train him up and let him explore that offensive side of his game would be good, and then Walker would be a stalwart defender alongside Slavin as well as getting more offensive opportunities.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and the other walk card, of course, is Charles Alexis Legault, and he's a guy that he's getting closer as well. So, for sure, a couple of quick thoughts on that. Yeah, that's definitely within the realm of possibility. The one question that I ask is that you've got Burns playing 20 minutes a game right now. If Burns came back on a team-friendly deal, you know, say a couple of million, do you bring him back for another year? And I think a lot of that's going to depend on where they think players like Legault and Morrow are in their development, because clearly they're going to have cap room, they're going to have tons and that's not going to be a concern. So the book isn't out on brunch for me. Look, they did an extension on Stahl till he's almost 40. So you know, I could see them bringing him back.
Speaker 2:Burns is 40. He is 40. Almost 40. He is 40.
Speaker 1:Okay, but I think that's still possible. I feel very strongly that Orlov returns. In my book Orlov has been the best defenseman consistently for the Canes this year. He drives offense. He's great in his own zone. He's leading the team by a large margin in plus minus. I think he's definitely coming back to the Canes. I think it will be a little trim on the deal not much, and I think it will be like three years at maybe 6.57 million. But he's a guy that I can definitely see back with the Hurricanes next year. And not the least is the fact that he is another Russian connection for Nikitin, a veteran player. He's been around the league for a while. He can really help them make the transition and the Canes are going to be very careful with that because of course, nikitian is the prize prospect in the Hurricanes.
Speaker 2:So, anyway, interesting discussion. I am going to make a bold prediction, though If Orlov is re-signed and comes back, I think that the Canes will end up trading Morrow for another piece somewhere down the line.
Speaker 1:Actually plays right into the next question, and Cody had this one as well and he was basically wondering if Eric Tulsky would be a little bit more aggressive in some of his deals, be willing to package some of these players you know, the Ungersorums, the Nadeaus, the Moros, whatever to get a player or players that could really be difference makers for the Hurricanes, and I think you're definitely of the mind that the Canes would do that.
Speaker 2:I think that they will do that if the right player comes along. I don't think that they are going to become trigger happy for somebody who is more of the same of what they have. The Canes' depth is great.
Speaker 2:And that's one thing that's really interesting to me. Where the Canes are a little different than most other playoff teams is most other playoff teams have their top lines more or less figured out and they need that depth, that depth scoring. They need those penalty killers, they need those role-playing type guys. The Canes are replete with role-playing guys. The Canes are replete with depth. I would match our fourth lineup. I mean, shout out to Tyson Jost and what he's been doing in the absence of Jack.
Speaker 1:Curry.
Speaker 2:We have a great amount of depth in our forward lineup, but what we need is a difference maker, and those unfortunately do not come cheaply.
Speaker 2:It is a lot easier to find a depth player, a depth forward, than it is to find a scoring winger or a 2C, something like that.
Speaker 2:If they find that person, especially someone they would like to put themselves in a position where they can't be genciled again, where the player comes in as a rental, becomes an unrestricted free agent and decides to go to another team, they will look for somebody that they think is a solution, not just now but in the future, that they will have control over whether it's term on the contract still or RFA rights or something like that. Yes, and in order to get that they are going to have to pay. The good thing is the canes have the resources. The canes have the, the prospects and they have plenty of picks still and they have even some roster players that they could move around. That would make it possible to to do some of these trades. But the Canes aren't going to just go out there and trade for the sake of trading. It will be for a very specific type of player with a very specific type of future on the team, both this season and moving forward.
Speaker 1:One last question that I wanted to touch on for a minute is this one from Eric Should the Canes be scratching any players?
Speaker 2:I mean, have some of the Canes played poorly enough that it might not hurt to sit them up in the press box for a game? Sure, but the Canes aren't in a position. Who would you replace them with?
Speaker 1:Log's the problem.
Speaker 2:Logistically no, we can't scratch anyone right now. There's no one to plug in for them and they're not going to disrupt the Wolves and the season that they have going on right there Just to send a message to a player for a game or two by scratching them. It's not going to happen, I agree.
Speaker 1:No, I think you're right on and I agree Some players would have definitely benefited from a few few opportunities to watch the game from up in the press box.
Speaker 1:So, OK, so front office fan, basically, is leading us into the next topic I want to get into and basically saying look where the Canes are now and you can look back over the last month or so. They're a team that they're going to make the playoffs for sure and they'll probably be in third spot in the Metro and that's fine, but it doesn't look like they're going to go deep. They just don't have enough firepower. They just, you know, there's still questions. We got about the goaltending and so on. Do you think that the Canes should be making moves and, if so, what are those priorities?
Speaker 2:Again, yes, if it's the right move, not just a move for a move. Some of the perspective trades that have been thrown out there on X by other fans and media figures and stuff like that, I don't think that they really meet the need. It's just trading life for life. It's trading similar production for similar production. So those types of trades, no, don't, don't make a trade just to make a trade. But if they do, obviously the needs are a second goalie and a 2C, a second center, if that's the case, as much as we love him, kk.
Speaker 2:Just you know, at this point he would have to be in the package in order to create the roster spot and the cap space, he would have to be the one that heads out. And then the question becomes who is the 2C?
Speaker 2:If you're picking up a 2C that is produced just like KK has produced this season, why? What's the point? It would need to be for a package of some other prospects and stuff to get a really impactful 2C, somebody who can come in and make a difference both on the ice and in the culture. You're thinking of someone like a Ryan O'Reilly or an Azen Padre, or I mean again swinging for the fences because they have had just an awful season here. Somebody like a Dylan Larkin who just could come in and really bolster the offense. You don't need somebody who is going to be scratching around on the edges. You need someone who's going to come in here and start creating offense, pushing play, getting the puck to the back of the net. Those would be the two areas I'm looking at if they do make a trade. But again, it has to be the right trade for the right price.
Speaker 1:Well, you mentioned some folks that I think are certainly on the radar. Ryan O'Reilly, to me, is the type of player that would really help the Canes significantly. He's got a $4.5 million deal that runs till 26-27. Last year he had 69 points, 26 goals, so he's a guy that definitely can come in at a 2C or whatever you want to call it, and make a big difference, and he's a guy that can also play the Canes style. He's a 200-foot player. He's done very well in the playoffs. He's just a heck of a character guy. If the Canes could get a guy like O'Reilly, I think they would have done extremely well. You mentioned Nazem Kadri. I think they would have done extremely well. You mentioned Nazem Kadri. Kadri's problem, I think, is more along the lines of the length of his contract. I think he's a guy that could be acquired. I think a deal that you would put in you know, kokaniemi and maybe some prospects, I think would get some interest with the planes.
Speaker 2:I don't see that as a yeah. I was just going to say. The one thing that cadry brings that some of the others don't, is that physical snarl yes game and a little bit more edge, and so that's why I particularly like it.
Speaker 2:And you know, again, yeah, is that deal a little long? Sure, but I think what he could deliver now and over the next couple of seasons would help to offset the um, the final years of that contract, because of the of the attitude that he would help bring that. I think that the the canes are could use a little bit more. Let's just put it that way the canes could use a little bit more of that snarl and that added and that attitude and that you know grit and grind as well as the skill. That's the beautiful thing about Kadri is he's not just a grinder, he has skill to go along with that compete level that he has.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I mean for sure. Again, he's 34, though, and I think that's a question that would be a concern for the Hurricanes.
Speaker 2:But yeah, kadri would be a great addition. O'reilly's up there in that age range too.
Speaker 1:O'Reilly is 33, but he's only got a two-year deal, so that's a little bit easier to swallow. But yeah, cadre would be a tremendous addition, for sure if the Canes were feeling like if they got three or four years out of him. Who cares if they buy out his deal? Who cares?
Speaker 2:You know me, I'd love either of those deals, because anytime a former Av can land on the Canes, that's like music to my ears.
Speaker 1:But for sure there are players out there that the Canes certainly are interested in. They did try to do a deal on Mackenzie Blackwood. Clearly the Avs were willing to throw in a much better prospect in Kovalenko. The Canes, I think, had offered B or C prospects. So you know, they're out there trying to make something happen and I fully expect, certainly by the deadline, the Canes will make some moves. I would not be surprised if they make some earlier than that. And I think, again, the two areas we've really put the focus on are the areas that they're going to be trying to attend to, and that's goaltending and sunrise. So lots of discussion coming up. We'll have a lot of fun with the rumors as they start to heat up, but I think the immediate challenge for the Hurricanes is they've got to get consistency and that's going to be key. They did have a nice win. Can they start to put some wins together and get some momentum going?
Speaker 2:Hopefully they can. We, you know we're all here for it. We love that third period against New Jersey yesterday. That was great and that's a big stepping stone. Hopefully they take a step forward, not a step back, bring that physicality, that energy, that passion that we've been waiting for. They've just seemed kind of listless recently and now they they're waking up a little bit and hopefully once they're playing that we've been waiting for, They've just seemed kind of listless recently and now they're waking up a little bit and hopefully once they're playing other opponents that aren't New Jersey, they still will have that little extra oomph to their game and be able to start stacking some wins together and making progress in standings. Because they're right there. They're five points behind Washington and six points behind.
Speaker 2:New Jersey, and they have three games in hand on New Jersey, so they're even closer with New Jersey than they are with Washington technically, so they are not out of this by any means. I think that they are going to be more in a fight for top spots in the Metro rather than worrying about them being a wild card team. I think they just need to get their skates under them a little bit more and look up, not look back, and this team will get rolling. They'll get it figured out.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and, in particular, if they can shore up a couple of these areas, I think they're going to be in pretty darn good shape for sure. Well, listen, katie, it's been a lot of fun talking about the canes, as always, and we're going to definitely do it again very, very soon, and hopefully our partner will join us again, aaron, in the not too distant future. For those of you who've been watching or listening, as always, we really appreciate that. If you like this episode, please press the like button. If you have any comments or want to talk about some of the trades that we are proposing and some of the moves, or even some of our thoughts, please place those down below and we'll return a response just as quickly as possible. And also, if you'd like to subscribe and be alerted of future episodes, please press the subscribe button. As always, katie and I want to thank you very much for joining us, and we're going to look forward to getting together with you real soon, right here on StormTracker.
